Manifestos like IT Project Plans Fail

A big part of the Nigeria 2023 general election campaign was when the political parties’ candidates came out with their plans. Parties explain how they plan to run the country. The rules are laid out. The slogans are repeated again and again. There has been so much fuss about manifestos in the Nigerian political space, so much that it seems like the party with the best manifesto should win the 2023 presidential election.

In context, these manifestos describe “how” each political party’s presidential candidate intends to save Nigeria, which is in a downward spiral. While a manifesto is great and helps the public appreciate the thinking and practicality of solutions proposed by the presidential candidates, it doesn’t guarantee anything and shouldn’t be the focus of anyone’s decision to vote for any presidential candidate. And the reason is simple: rescuing a country is just as complex as building a major software or IT project, and any upfront plan to deliver the solution, like manifestos, is not always thought through and more often than not fails.

According to a Geneca study, 75% of IT executives believe that their projects are usually doomed from the start. 70% of all IT projects fall short of their objectives. The reasons for these failures are not too different from the problems that any president will face when they try to carry out their original plan or plan of action. Prices for resources like exchange rates and the cost of debt may change. The administration may end up with a hung government where they do not have the majority support of the legislative arm to pass laws but still need to drive the implementation of policies. Key People with aligned vision and understanding may leave. Do you have the right team to carry on? New technologies may emerge, and an act of God (i.e., COVID-19) may occur. A lot of things may derail the plans.

An upfront plan for a complex solution like a manifesto is a gimmick to sway voters or stakeholders. It’s not based on fact. The bigger worry should be how often campaign promises are dropped or put off when they don’t fit with how the government works. The last government didn't even try to carry out much of what was in its manifesto. Shehu Shagari (1979), Olusegun Obasanjo (1999), Musa Yardua (2007), Goodluck Jonathan (2011), and Muhamadu Buhari (2015) have all released manifestos that promise free, high-quality education that is guaranteed to be free, stable electricity, water in every city and village, good health care, self-sufficiency in food production, industrialization of Nigeria, and more How far?

Not only are campaign promises not well thought out, but the candidates also don't know enough about how a policy can be put into place. For example, how can a presidential candidate roll out a “detailed” plan to address insecurity in its manifesto when it has no access to the current security and intelligence reports from the security professionals on the ground? Such a plan is nothing but a bunch of vibes.

A manifesto is a good way to explain your ideas for development, but it shouldn’t be used as a bragging right to save a country like Nigeria. Approaching complex solutions with a linear plan is bound to fail. The best way to do this will be to use an execution model that is more flexible and relies less on plans and paperwork and more on coming up with working solutions in small steps.

However, manifestos still matter in electioneering campaigns, but they shouldn’t be the main reason for anyone’s decision to vote for a presidential candidate in 2023. Voters should choose a candidate who has a track record of delivering successful development projects, who can adapt well to change, and who has made tough executive decisions in the past. It should be a candidate who exhibits the right professional ethic and integrity in the life of service and can bring in a team that shares the same principles in service. Vote wisely.